12345
All markets
Active27d

Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30?

25%

YES probability

25%YES

AI Market Insight

Bearish

The market currently prices YES at 24.5% and is softening toward NO (-3.0pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.

  • 24h probability move: YES moved -3.0pp in the last 24h (now 24.5%).
  • Trading activity: $2,443 traded over 24h on $6,613 liquidity.

Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 68%

Analytics

Analytics are being computed for this market.

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Kamianske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.543151° N, 35.368104° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET). Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Place a bet

Shares408.16
Payout if win408 coins
Profit if win+308 coins

Play money only — virtual coins, no real wagering.

YES

25%

NO

76%

Best bid24.0¢
Best ask25.0¢
Spread1.00¢
24h volume$2.4K
Liquidity$6.6K
Total volume$10.1K

Bids

24.0¢$1.6K
23.0¢$499.9
22.0¢$750.1
21.0¢$135.9
20.0¢$200.9
19.0¢$40
17.0¢$41.2
16.0¢$50

Asks

25.0¢$991.7
26.0¢$307.9
27.0¢$636.3
28.0¢$444.8
29.0¢$46.2
30.0¢$65
31.0¢$70
33.0¢$10.4
Mid 24.5¢Spread 1.00¢