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ScienceActive5d

Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 1 - 7?

8%

YES probability

8%YES

AI Market Insight

Neutral

The market currently prices YES at 7.5% and is holding roughly steady (+0.0pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.

  • Trading activity: $253 traded over 24h on $1,022 liquidity.
  • Resolution approaching: Market resolves in 5 day(s) — expect convergence toward the outcome.

Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 56%

Analytics

Analytics are being computed for this market.

About this market

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between June 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

Place a bet

Shares1333.33
Payout if win1,333 coins
Profit if win+1,233 coins

Play money only — virtual coins, no real wagering.

YES

8%

NO

93%

Best bid7.0¢
Best ask8.0¢
Spread1.00¢
24h volume$252.7
Liquidity$1K
Total volume$252.7

Bids

No bid orders

Asks

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Mid Spread