Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
80%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
BullishThe market currently prices YES at 79.5% and is firming toward YES (+2.0pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved +2.0pp in the last 24h (now 79.5%).
- •Trading activity: $448 traded over 24h on $3,460 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 64%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
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YES
80%
NO
20%
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