Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?
34%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
BearishThe market currently prices YES at 34.0% and is softening toward NO (-16.5pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved -16.5pp in the last 24h (now 34.0%).
- •Trading activity: $1,357 traded over 24h on $7,176 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 76%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
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YES
34%
NO
66%
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