Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
65%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
NeutralThe market currently prices YES at 64.5% and is holding roughly steady (+0.0pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •Trading activity: $417 traded over 24h on $1,282 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 48%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
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YES
65%
NO
36%
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