Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
7%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
NeutralThe market currently prices YES at 6.5% and is holding roughly steady (+0.5pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved +0.5pp in the last 24h (now 6.5%).
- •Trading activity: $14,662 traded over 24h on $54,214 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 58%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
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YES
7%
NO
94%
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