Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
8%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
NeutralThe market currently prices YES at 7.5% and is holding roughly steady (-1.0pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved -1.0pp in the last 24h (now 7.5%).
- •Trading activity: $8,644 traded over 24h on $146,080 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 60%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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YES
8%
NO
93%
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