Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 21 be at least 100?
1%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
BearishThe market currently prices YES at 0.5% and is softening toward NO (-26.5pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved -26.5pp in the last 24h (now 0.5%).
- •Recent 1h momentum: Short-term move of -1.0pp in the past hour.
- •Trading activity: $853 traded over 24h on $3,104 liquidity.
- •Resolution approaching: Market resolves in 3 day(s) — expect convergence toward the outcome.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 85%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
Resolution
- Source
- https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html
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YES
1%
NO
100%
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