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Active7mo

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?

10%

YES probability

10%YES

AI Market Insight

Bullish

The market currently prices YES at 10.4% and is firming toward YES (+1.8pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.

  • 24h probability move: YES moved +1.8pp in the last 24h (now 10.4%).
  • Trading activity: $3,458 traded over 24h on $5,824 liquidity.

Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 63%

Analytics

Analytics are being computed for this market.

About this market

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Place a bet

Shares956.94
Payout if win957 coins
Profit if win+857 coins

Play money only — virtual coins, no real wagering.

YES

10%

NO

90%

Best bid9.4¢
Best ask11.5¢
Spread2.10¢
24h volume$3.5K
Liquidity$5.8K
Total volume$30.6K

Bids

9.4¢$14
9.3¢$139.5
9.2¢$50
9.1¢$86
8.2¢$20.1
7.7¢$30.6
7.3¢$50
7.0¢$176.6

Asks

12.2¢$50
13.9¢$81
14.0¢$58.6
14.2¢$81
14.3¢$57.9
14.8¢$100
14.9¢$2.5K
58.2¢$5
Mid 10.8¢Spread 2.80¢