
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
10%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
BullishThe market currently prices YES at 10.4% and is firming toward YES (+1.8pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved +1.8pp in the last 24h (now 10.4%).
- •Trading activity: $3,458 traded over 24h on $5,824 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 63%
Analytics
About this market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
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YES
10%
NO
90%
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