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Active8d

Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?

2%

YES probability

2%YES

AI Market Insight

Bearish

The market currently prices YES at 2.1% and is softening toward NO (-1.1pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.

  • 24h probability move: YES moved -1.1pp in the last 24h (now 2.1%).
  • Trading activity: $12,610 traded over 24h on $28,083 liquidity.

Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 60%

Analytics

Analytics are being computed for this market.

About this market

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

Place a bet

Shares4761.90
Payout if win4,762 coins
Profit if win+4,662 coins

Play money only — virtual coins, no real wagering.

YES

2%

NO

98%

Best bid2.0¢
Best ask2.2¢
Spread0.20¢
24h volume$12.6K
Liquidity$28.1K
Total volume$125.3K

Bids

2.0¢$145.5
1.8¢$200
1.7¢$327.2
1.0¢$556
0.9¢$5K
0.6¢$662.2
0.3¢$800
0.2¢$8.7K

Asks

2.2¢$54
2.4¢$6.9K
2.5¢$2K
2.7¢$400
2.9¢$803.7
3.0¢$1.2K
3.1¢$5.2K
3.2¢$92.2
Mid 2.1¢Spread 0.20¢