12345
All markets
Active7mo

Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

83%

YES probability

83%YES

AI Market Insight

Neutral

The market currently prices YES at 82.5% and is holding roughly steady (+0.5pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.

  • 24h probability move: YES moved +0.5pp in the last 24h (now 82.5%).
  • Trading activity: $4,011 traded over 24h on $12,957 liquidity.

Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 58%

Analytics

Analytics are being computed for this market.

About this market

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Place a bet

Shares121.21
Payout if win121 coins
Profit if win+21 coins

Play money only — virtual coins, no real wagering.

YES

83%

NO

18%

Best bid82.0¢
Best ask83.0¢
Spread1.00¢
24h volume$4K
Liquidity$13K
Total volume$269.3K

Bids

82.0¢$110
80.0¢$150.2
79.0¢$127
78.0¢$309.3
77.0¢$1K
76.0¢$481.5
75.0¢$1.1K
74.0¢$414.5

Asks

83.0¢$1.3K
84.0¢$615.2
85.0¢$1.1K
86.0¢$1.2K
87.0¢$777.6
88.0¢$601.8
89.0¢$571.1
90.0¢$248.9
Mid 82.5¢Spread 1.00¢