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Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO day?

42%

YES probability

42%YES

AI Market Insight

Bearish

The market currently prices YES at 41.5% and is softening toward NO (-6.0pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.

  • 24h probability move: YES moved -6.0pp in the last 24h (now 41.5%).
  • Recent 1h momentum: Short-term move of -1.0pp in the past hour.
  • Trading activity: $6,868 traded over 24h on $9,059 liquidity.
  • Resolution approaching: Market resolves in 2 day(s) — expect convergence toward the outcome.

Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 85%

Analytics

Analytics are being computed for this market.

About this market

This market will resolve based on Quantinuum's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled for June 4 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before August 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company's outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day. If necessary, to accurately capture the company's total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange's official listing page. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange's official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading. In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.

Place a bet

Shares240.96
Payout if win241 coins
Profit if win+141 coins

Play money only — virtual coins, no real wagering.

YES

42%

NO

59%

Best bid41.0¢
Best ask42.0¢
Spread1.00¢
24h volume$6.9K
Liquidity$9.1K
Total volume$8.5K

Bids

41.0¢$49
40.0¢$3.6K
39.0¢$513.3
33.0¢$308
32.0¢$34.4
21.0¢$38.3
17.0¢$47.1
16.0¢$450

Asks

42.0¢$101
43.0¢$3.9K
44.0¢$5K
45.0¢$293
46.0¢$20
47.0¢$155
49.0¢$64.6
50.0¢$18
Mid 41.5¢Spread 1.00¢