Active7mo

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

YES probability

5%YES

AI Market Insight

Neutral

The market currently prices YES at 4.6% and is holding roughly steady (-0.7pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.

•24h probability move: YES moved -0.7pp in the last 24h (now 4.6%).
•Trading activity: $805 traded over 24h on $37,547 liquidity.

Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 59%

Analytics

Analytics are being computed for this market.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Place a bet

Amount (coins)

Shares2173.91

Payout if win2,174 coins

Profit if win+2,074 coins

Play money only — virtual coins, no real wagering.

YES

95%

Best bid4.5¢

Best ask4.7¢

Spread0.20¢

24h volume$804.9

Liquidity$37.5K

Total volume$247.6K

Bids

4.5¢$449.5

3.2¢$195

2.6¢$75

2.5¢$175.3

1.6¢$10.4

1.5¢$89

1.3¢$12.9

1.2¢$200

Asks

4.7¢$286.9

5.2¢$129

5.3¢$120

5.4¢$28

5.6¢$629.7

5.7¢$1K

5.8¢$5K

5.9¢$179.3

Mid 4.6¢Spread 0.20¢