Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
5%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
NeutralThe market currently prices YES at 4.5% and is holding roughly steady (+0.0pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •Trading activity: $1,710 traded over 24h on $5,726 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 48%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
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YES
5%
NO
95%
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