Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?
7%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
NeutralThe market currently prices YES at 7.0% and is holding roughly steady (+0.5pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved +0.5pp in the last 24h (now 7.0%).
- •Trading activity: $5,857 traded over 24h on $24,179 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 58%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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YES
7%
NO
93%
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