Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?
20%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
BullishThe market currently prices YES at 19.5% and is firming toward YES (+4.0pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved +4.0pp in the last 24h (now 19.5%).
- •Trading activity: $533 traded over 24h on $4,205 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 72%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
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YES
20%
NO
81%
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