Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
NeutralThe market currently prices YES at 5.1% and is holding roughly steady (+0.0pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •Trading activity: $32,488 traded over 24h on $266,402 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 48%
Analytics
About this market
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
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YES
5%
NO
95%
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