Active3mo

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

YES probability

3%YES

AI Market Insight

Neutral

The market currently prices YES at 3.3% and is holding roughly steady (+0.4pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.

•Trading activity: $3,683 traded over 24h on $75,512 liquidity.

Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 50%

Analytics

Analytics are being computed for this market.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Place a bet

Amount (coins)

Shares3030.30

Payout if win3,030 coins

Profit if win+2,930 coins

Play money only — virtual coins, no real wagering.

YES

97%

Best bid3.2¢

Best ask3.4¢

Spread0.20¢

24h volume$3.7K

Liquidity$75.5K

Total volume$810.2K

Bids

3.2¢$138.6

3.1¢$519.6

3.0¢$499.1

2.9¢$48.8

2.7¢$352.2

2.6¢$759.8

2.5¢$1.9K

2.4¢$1.2K

Asks

3.4¢$119.9

3.5¢$644.4

3.6¢$166

3.7¢$1.1K

3.8¢$50

3.9¢$1.4K

4.0¢$300

4.1¢$300

Mid 3.3¢Spread 0.20¢