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Active19mo

Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?

3%

YES probability

3%YES

AI Market Insight

Bearish

The market currently prices YES at 3.4% and is softening toward NO (-1.6pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.

  • 24h probability move: YES moved -1.6pp in the last 24h (now 3.4%).
  • Trading activity: $2,891 traded over 24h on $18,436 liquidity.

Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 62%

Analytics

Analytics are being computed for this market.

About this market

This market will resolve based on Anthropic's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Anthropic’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Place a bet

Shares2941.18
Payout if win2,941 coins
Profit if win+2,841 coins

Play money only — virtual coins, no real wagering.

YES

3%

NO

97%

Best bid1.9¢
Best ask4.9¢
Spread3.00¢
24h volume$2.9K
Liquidity$18.4K
Total volume$15.7K

Bids

2.1¢$45
2.0¢$101
1.8¢$200
1.7¢$847
1.5¢$1.2K
1.1¢$826
1.0¢$5.8K
0.7¢$100

Asks

4.0¢$15.5
5.0¢$2.2K
5.1¢$240
5.2¢$600
5.6¢$30
5.7¢$20
5.8¢$16
6.0¢$220
Mid 3.0¢Spread 1.90¢