Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?
6%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
BullishThe market currently prices YES at 5.9% and is firming toward YES (+3.8pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved +3.8pp in the last 24h (now 5.9%).
- •Recent 1h momentum: Short-term move of +2.3pp in the past hour.
- •Trading activity: $13,240 traded over 24h on $27,825 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 79%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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YES
6%
NO
94%
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