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Active7mo

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

33%

YES probability

33%YES

AI Market Insight

Neutral

The market currently prices YES at 32.5% and is holding roughly steady (-1.0pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.

  • 24h probability move: YES moved -1.0pp in the last 24h (now 32.5%).
  • Trading activity: $78 traded over 24h on $5,622 liquidity.

Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 60%

Analytics

Analytics are being computed for this market.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Place a bet

Shares307.69
Payout if win308 coins
Profit if win+208 coins

Play money only — virtual coins, no real wagering.

YES

33%

NO

68%

Best bid32.0¢
Best ask33.0¢
Spread1.00¢
24h volume$77.9
Liquidity$5.6K
Total volume$10.5K

Bids

32.0¢$10
31.0¢$5
30.0¢$1.9K
26.0¢$42.3
25.0¢$506.8
23.0¢$9.8
22.0¢$1K
20.0¢$2.2K

Asks

33.0¢$10
34.0¢$66
35.0¢$180.8
36.0¢$0.2
37.0¢$25
38.0¢$39
39.0¢$100
40.0¢$428.2
Mid 32.5¢Spread 1.00¢