SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T?
96%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
BearishThe market currently prices YES at 96.3% and is softening toward NO (-1.4pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved -1.4pp in the last 24h (now 96.3%).
- •Recent 1h momentum: Short-term move of +1.3pp in the past hour.
- •Trading activity: $7,350 traded over 24h on $37,945 liquidity.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 70%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
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YES
96%
NO
4%
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