Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by May 31?
1%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
NeutralThe market currently prices YES at 1.3% and is holding roughly steady (-0.6pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved -0.6pp in the last 24h (now 1.3%).
- •Trading activity: $1,144 traded over 24h on $7,545 liquidity.
- •Resolution approaching: Market resolves in 4 day(s) — expect convergence toward the outcome.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 66%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
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YES
1%
NO
99%
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