Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?
18%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
BullishThe market currently prices YES at 17.5% and is firming toward YES (+5.5pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved +5.5pp in the last 24h (now 17.5%).
- •Trading activity: $9,815 traded over 24h on $16,536 liquidity.
- •Resolution approaching: Market resolves in 4 day(s) — expect convergence toward the outcome.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 84%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israeli military personnel physically enter the municipality of Nabatieh in Lebanon for military purposes by the listed day 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, aerial and maritime operations will not be considered. Only operations involving troops on the ground within the municipality of Nabatieh will count. Undercover Israeli operatives and assets will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be photo and video evidence; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the date/time of a qualifying entry cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.
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YES
18%
NO
83%
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