
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?
12%
YES probability
AI Market Insight
NeutralThe market currently prices YES at 12.0% and is holding roughly steady (+0.5pp over 24h). Price action has been relatively stable.
- •24h probability move: YES moved +0.5pp in the last 24h (now 12.0%).
- •Trading activity: $15,583 traded over 24h on $14,911 liquidity.
- •Resolution approaching: Market resolves in 5 day(s) — expect convergence toward the outcome.
Generated by foresight-heuristic-v1 · confidence 66%
Analytics
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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YES
12%
NO
88%
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